Rising Tensions in the Middle East and Their Impact on Global Seafood Demand

Escalating tensions and conflicts in the Middle East are creating significant disruptions in global energy and transportation markets. Oil prices are rising, while shipping and marine insurance costs are increasing sharply. At the same time, consumer sentiment in the United States—the world’s largest seafood import market—is showing signs of caution. In this context, a critical question arises: how will U.S. seafood demand evolve if geopolitical tensions persist?

Energy and Logistics Shock Spilling Over into the Seafood Market

Recent developments in the Middle East have triggered substantial cost shocks across global trade. One of the most critical hotspots is the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic shipping route through which approximately 20% of the world’s traded oil passes.

In early March 2026, Brent crude oil prices surged to nearly USD 120 per barrel before falling back to around USD 92 per barrel by March 10, 2026. Meanwhile, war risk insurance premiums for commercial vessels operating in the region have risen significantly.

Shipping data indicates that vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz declined sharply over a short period due to security concerns. As a result, many shipping lines have had to reroute or apply additional risk surcharges. Container freight costs have also started to rise again, with the global container freight index increasing by 3% to USD 1,958 per 40-foot container as of March 5, 2026.

Air freight—an essential channel for fresh seafood products—has also been heavily impacted. According to global logistics analysts, the conflict has reduced global air cargo capacity by approximately 12%.

For the seafood industry, these developments are particularly significant. Logistics costs already account for a large portion of export prices, especially for frozen products and time-sensitive items such as fresh tuna. As fuel and insurance costs rise, expenses related to refrigerated containers, air freight, and cold chain management also increase accordingly.

The U.S. Market’s Heavy Dependence on Imports

The United States remains the largest seafood consumption market in the world and relies heavily on imports. Approximately 80% of seafood consumed in the U.S. is imported, with per capita consumption exceeding 19 pounds per year. Total U.S. imports of edible seafood reach around 6.3 billion pounds annually. This high level of import dependency makes U.S. seafood demand particularly sensitive to external cost shocks.

Retail data from early 2026 reveals a notable trend: seafood prices are rising faster than consumption volumes. In January 2026, frozen seafood sales increased by 4.5% to USD 860.7 million, while volume declined by 3.8%. Fresh seafood sales rose by 3.7% to USD 856.6 million, while consumption volume remained nearly flat. This indicates that while consumers continue to spend on seafood, they are becoming increasingly price-sensitive.

Shrimp: The Most Affected Product Segment

Among seafood categories in the U.S. market, shrimp shows the highest sensitivity to price fluctuations. Retail data for January 2026 indicates:

• Fresh shrimp: prices increased by 17.3%, while consumption dropped by 18.4%

• Frozen shrimp: prices increased by 16%, while consumption declined by 10.7%

These figures demonstrate that when retail prices rise significantly, U.S. consumers tend to reduce shrimp consumption more rapidly compared to other seafood products.

In 2025, the U.S. imported approximately 795,641 tons of shrimp, up 2% year-over-year. However, if transportation costs continue to rise and are passed on to retail prices, shrimp demand—particularly for premium products—may face the greatest pressure.

Shift Toward More Affordable Seafood Products

During periods of economic uncertainty, consumers tend to shift toward more affordable options. This trend may create opportunities for certain seafood categories.

In 2025, the U.S. imported 91.9 million pounds of frozen yellowfin tuna, while exports of frozen surimi blocks reached approximately 145,000 tons. Products such as canned tuna, surimi, pangasius, and other whitefish tend to maintain more stable demand during economic downturns.

If the cost of living in the U.S. continues to rise, demand is likely to shift from premium seafood products toward more cost-effective alternatives.

Retail Channels May Benefit

Another important factor is the difference between consumption channels. The foodservice sector, including restaurants, is generally more sensitive to economic fluctuations. As living costs increase, consumers tend to reduce dining out.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, in January 2026:

• Food away from home prices increased by 4.0%

• Food at home prices increased by 2.1%

This indicates that dining out costs are rising faster than home cooking expenses. If this trend continues, seafood demand in the foodservice sector may decline, while retail and at-home consumption channels are likely to remain more stable.